Against this, US TV advert spending will fall by 7.7% to $62.42 billion this yr and flatline by means of the top of our forecast interval to 2026. So, whereas our retail media forecast stops at 2024, if present tendencies maintain, retail media ought to surpass TV by round 2025. Actually, even when retail media slows to 12% progress in 2025, it’ll nonetheless overtake TV that yr.

To higher perceive the connection between retail media and TV, it’s price taking a look at the place retail media budgets are coming from.

Between 60% and 70% of retail media {dollars} in 2026 will probably be “web new to retailers,” in line with estimates from a March 2022 examine by Boston Consulting Group and Google, with the rest coming from current retail revenues like commerce budgets, sponsorships, occasions, and promotions. Natural progress in digital, shifts from different digital channels, and shifts from conventional spending (particularly TV) will gasoline the “web new” spending.

The migration of advert {dollars} from linear TV to retail media is occurring largely as a result of among the largest retail media networks are muscling into the CTV house. Amazon is doing it organically by means of its ad-supported video content material, together with its unique license for the NFL’s Thursday Night time Soccer franchise and its ad-supported Freevee streaming service. Different retailers are getting there by means of partnerships, notably Walmart with The Commerce Desk and The Kroger Co. with Roku.

As these ventures proceed to bear fruit, retail media networks will probably be on the receiving finish of the circulate of {dollars} from conventional to CTV—a pattern that’s been taking part in out over years and exhibits no signal of abating.

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